Just Walk Both Of Them?

As a Cardinal fan I was naturally excited about the re-signing of Matt Holliday on one hand, knowing he provided a counterweight to El Hombre, and on the other hand I had an uncomfortable feeling for what this might mean in the not so distant future. Yes, in some ways this gives the Cards a better chance to retain Albert when it comes time to sign another mega-contract, but as so many have pointed out, this may handcuff the team financially as they attempt to fill in pieces around the two stars. Certainly the biggest question will be whether there is money left to keep Carp and Wainwright at the front of the rotation and maintain the best chance of trotting out an unstoppable tandem in the playoffs.

That will be a critical decision in a couple seasons, but obviously one major reason for the move is that the front office senses the pieces in place over the next couple years to make a run at another World Series title. The conventional thought is that StL now has the protection for Albert they have lacked for so long and can begin to put runs on the board. That would certainly be a welcome sight...but is that what we can really expect from this 2010 Cardinal team? Is this lineup now a championship lineup?

Despite the monstrous year that Albert Pujols had in 2009 (as usual), it was predominently their pitching that led the Cardinals to the postseason. St. Louis finished 3rd in runs allowed in the NL, but just 7th in runs scored (numbers almost identical to the Braves, who finished 5 games worse, by the way). Repeating those numbers would likely put them in a similar spot in October, but if the pitching staff falters (or doesn't see much production from the last half of the rotation...Penny, Lohse, and ?), what could things look like?

(Thanks to the NL Central competitors, probably at least a playoff showing, but anyway...)

Here is the projected StL lineup, with BA/OBP/SLG splits from '09 (and OPS thrown in)...

1. Schumaker .303/.364/.393/ .757
2. Rasmus .251/.307/.407/ .714
3. Pujols .327/.443/.658/ 1.101
4. Holliday .353/.419/.604/ 1.023 (w/ STL)
5. Ludwick .265/.329/.447/ .775
6. Molina .293/.366/.383/ .749
7. Freese .323/.353/.484/ .837 (in 31 AB)
8. Ryan .292/.340/.400/ .740

A few things should be obvious on quick glance:

1. Holliday is not going to repeat those numbers for 162 games.
2. Freese, a rookie, is an unknown commodity, but nowhere close to the numbers listed.
3. Rasmus was a rookie last year and figures to improve with more playing time this year
4. Ludwick is the only other "power" bat...not a lot of pop in the lineup

Three of these could be cause for concern heading into the season, but the last of those 3 is my biggest concern with the lineup heading into the year. Pujols and Holliday are really the only plus hitters of the bunch (VERY plus). Outside of those two, there is just not much to be scared of when facing this order. St. Louis needs more production out of Ludwick this season if they hope to score towards the top half of the league. If he can land somewhere between his '09 numbers and his '08 numbers (.299/.375/.591 - .966OPS - that's not happening again) and the Cards can get reasonable production from Freese at 3B the lineup actually looks pretty solid, even if it isn't intimidating. For perspective, the Cardinals did not have any players log even 200 PAs at 3B last year and got almost no production from them (even Derosa, folks - .696 OPS), so Freese should be a decent substitute.

Most teams don't get lots of power from the middle infield or even catcher, so I'm fine with that. But that means the corner infield and outfield spots must be counted on to provide the pop. Albert and Holliday have half of that covered, but with Freese a question mark, that leaves a lot to Ludwick...and maybe Rasmus, too.

Think about how much better this lineup looks if Ludwick could put up a .280, 32HR season and if Rasmus can hit closer to .270 and provide 20-22HRs. With Molina, Ryan, and Schmaker able to hit near .300 and get on base there would not be many easy outs and you can see the potential for crooked numbers on the scoreboard. There is plenty of reason to think the offense will be improved this year, but I don't think it will be a dramatic improvement until another power source emerges. If the pitching holds up the Cards can win with this offense.

This is especially true in the NL, where the only team they can't match up closely with is the Phillies (Victorino, Rollins, Utley, Howard, Werth...). The National League just does not have as many of the kind of lineups you might see in the AL (NYY, BOS, MIN, LAA-well, maybe not the Angels this year). Some of the deeper lineups (COL, ATL, FLA) lack an explosive middle or teams like STL and MIL lack depth outside the big two (Braun, Fielder)...LA is closer to matching depth and explosiveness if Furcal and Manny come back with strong seasons to go with Kemp, Ethier and Blake. So, it wouldn't take much for St. Louis to push toward the top of the league in scoring.

While I focused on the Cardinals' hitting, here are my three keys to the Cardinals' 2010 season:

1. Finding another power source - namely, seeing Ludwick recover from a lackluster '09
2. Lohse and Penny - Penny needs to give the Cards similar production as Piniero last season (phenomenal year that was better than his 15-12 record suggests) it will be even more important that Lohse turns things around. They need at least a dominant 3 or solid 4 starters. Lack of an experienced number 5 won't be a glaring weakness if those two perform.
3. Health - This is a thin team, starting with the rotation, but even in the field. There is little on the bench beyond Julio Lugo and not even one outfielder listed on ESPN's depth chart. Significant injuries could submarine this team.

There's a handful of my thoughts on the upcoming season for the Cardinals...more to come as we approach Opening Day. How do you guys feel about the team, particularly the lineup?