2010 Preview - AL Central

Everyone agrees this is a three team race (Chicago, Detroit, Minnesota) and after Joe Nathan went down for the season a few weeks ago it has become even more of a toss-up. This is a division that has gone down to the wire the last two seasons and looks to do so again. The winner might only need 86 - 88 wins to pull that off, but the other two should be close at their heels in the mid-80s. This is a study in contrasts with the White Sox deep pitching staff, the Twins thundering bats, and the Tigers infusion of youth at key positions. It should be fun to watch them battle it out! So, who will come out on top?

1. Minnesota Twins

The bottom line is it is hard to bet against the Twins and Ron Gardenhire with their track record the past several years. Every time they lose key players (to free agency, trade, injury) someone seems to step up and push them into the playoffs. Even without Joe Nathan this team looks tough to beat. After reports this spring, it appears Fransisco Liriano may be back to form and recovered from his surgery a couple years ago. If he continues to throw as well as he has, Minnesota won't might just forget all this Joe Nathan drama. The bullpen still has quality arms and while the rotation is not dominant, they should give the offense a chance most nights. But with this lineup that could be any night...

The primary reason to bet on the Twins winning the Central again in 2010 is their stacked lineup, which could rival the Yankees for the AL's best. In addition to All-American boy Joe Mauer, the Twins have another former MVP in Justin Morneau, who is healthy again after finishing on the DL. On top of that you have to deal with Kubel and Cuddyer, not to mention the additions of Jim Thome and JJ Hardy, making this a power packed lineup from top to bottom. Denard Span is more than just a nightly highlight reel in center...he can hit and run, too, giving Minnesota a little versatility. They should put on a pretty good show for those fans freezing their butts off at Target Field in early April...and likely early October.

2. Chicago White Sox

I hesitate to pick the Sox ahead of Detroit, but their pitching staff looks like it should be the best in the AL, with a deep rotation and hard-throwing bullpen. All five starters will give Chicago great innings every night and having a healthy, full season of Jake Peavy gives them another veteran leader to go with Mark Buehrle. Gavin Floyd and John Danks are looking better and better. The only question mark is whether they can get 25+ starts from Freddy Garcia, who has not pitched a full season since 2006. If he is healthy, Garcia is a workhorse who will go 200+ IP and will keep the bullpen well rested. The White Sox shouldn't give up many runs this year.

But where will their runs come from? While the pitching staff remains much the same, the offense received an overhaul, most notably losing long-time sluggers Jim Thome and Jermaine Dye and while adding Juan Pierre and Andruw Jones. Chicago will have a balanced lineup with a number of veterans, but need a star to emerge. It is probably still too soon for that star to be Gordon Beckham or even Alexi Ramirez, but perhaps Carlos Quentin will return to being the power threat he was before a rash of injuries slowed him the last couple seasons. To stay in the mix the Sox won't need to lead the league in runs, but they will need to find some production from this hard to predict mix.

3. Detroit Tigers

Detroit could just as easily finish first as third, but a lot of that will ride on the development of their young players, especially Rick Porcello and Max Scherzer. After a phenomenal showing his rookie season, Porcello will be tested to repeat that performance and will likely fall a little short given his lackluster K/BB ratio. Scherzer is also one to watch and turned in a solid first season himself for a poor Arizona club, striking out hitters at a K/IP clip. He provides another power arm behind potential Cy Young Justin Verlander. The Tigers will need all three to step up with the back end of the rotation bringing a lot of questions into the start of the year. Bonderman appears healthy, but he and Willis have a lot to prove after a few shaky years.

There is a lot to like in the Tigers rookie hitters, as well, and there are high hopes for Austin Jackson and Scott Sizemore to make an immediate impact. Jackson will have tough shoes to fill replacing Granderson at the plate, but might even be a step up in the field. And the addition of Damon should help make up for the loss of his bat. The Tigers D will be solid up the middle, helping their pitching staff tremendously. The real question for the lineup will be what kind of Magglio Ordonez Detroit will get. They will need him to get his power back to pose a threat behind Miguel Cabrera, who should have another excellent year.

If the Tiger's young players mature quickly, this will be the team to beat in the Central. I just see too much hanging on the production of those key players to put them in first.

5. Cleveland Indians

No, that is not a missprint. I am predicting the Indians and Royals to finished tied in the basement, just like last season. This is just a bad team. The fact that they finished last season tied with the Royals is already proof of that. But hearing that they might have Justin Masterson as their opening day starter says a lot about this team, too. They are counting on major comebacks from Jake Westbrook (who hasn't looked good), Fausto Carmona (who has), and Grady Sizemore (who should be solid again, but can't carry the team). Even assuming they all perform to their potential the Indians will not be a good club. That would put them ahead of the Royals, but not by a longshot.

I do like Shin-Soo Choo, though...and not just because his name is fun to say.

5. Kansas City Royals

How exactly were the Royals not in the contraction discussions a few years back? It seems like forever since they were relevant or even interesting, but at least they have one exciting player to watch. Zach Greinke is probably the only reason to pay attention to this team. I may throw in Billy Butler if I'm feeling generous. This team is just not going anywhere. Even their veteran signings don't make much sense...what are they really expecting out of Jason Kendall or Kyle Farnsworth? I admit that as a Cardinal fan I'm pulling for Rick Ankiel to develop into a great everyday player and it was probably a pretty risk-free move to sign him. So, that will certainly be my only reason to keep up with the Royals other than every 5th day.

Does George Brett have a son coming through the system, by any chance?

2010 Preview - NL Central

Least Changes in any division?

There weren't many significant moves made this offseason in the NL Central, the most notable probably being the Reds' signing of Aroldis Chapman, which has a lot more implications for future seasons than this one. The Cardinals basically swapped out Joel Piniero for Brad Penny, the Cubs played the addition by subtraction game shipping Milton Bradley as far away as they could (maybe even literally), and the Brewers signed Jimmy Edmonds...which would be dramatic had that been 6 years ago. With so few changes, does that mean the standings will remain the same, too? Yes. Yes it does.

1. St. Louis Cardinals

All the major pieces are still in place for last year's Division Champs and it is hard to argue against two Cy Young candidates, the reigning 'best hitter you've ever seen', and a full season of Matt Holliday. The depth of the rotation will ride on Brad Penny replacing Piniero's stellar year and Kyle Lohse returning to form, but the potential is high a solid 1-5. Jaime Garcia pitched his way into the rotation this spring and thankfully doesn't have big shoes (although big shoulders) to fill following Todd Wellemeyer's rough 2009 season. There are some concerns about Ryan Franklin as closer after he faded down the stretch last season, but the bullpen is solid on both sides of the mound.

Despite the rash of spring injuries in the starting lineup, the thought of having a one-two punch of Pujols-Holliday all season surely brings a smile to the face of any St. Louis fan. The Cards should also see added production from Sophomore Colby Rasmus, whom Keith Law highlights as one of his potential breakout stars for the year. The way Ryan Ludwick and David Freese have been swinging the bat this preseason there is reason to believe this could be a much improved lineup. The only real concern will be the bench, where the Redbirds will rely heavily on super-utility Felipe Lopez to fill the gaps.

This is a team we should see not just competing for another Division title, but making a deep run into October. The only other strong challenger in the Central is the...

2. Chicago Cubs

The Cubs may have been the most disappointing team of 2009, being the preseason favorite to win the Central for the third year in a row following a 97 win 2008 season. Most of Chicago would like to pin the flop squarely on the shoulders of boardgame magnate Milton Bradley, but there were issues in the bullpen, lack of production in the entire outfield and behind the plate, a poor showing by supposed ace Carlos Zambrano, and a handful of significant injuries that all contributed to a mediocre year. With as much went wrong last season it would be hard to imagine that happening again for the Cubs in 2010...except this is the Cubs...it's what they do, right?

The 2010 team has some big question marks in the rotation, especially with the most consistent starter, Ted Lilly, out for the beginning of April, possibly longer. Chicago will need Zambrano to finally reign in his emotions and focus for an entire season if they are to match up with the front of the Cardinals rotation. Ryan Dempster turned in a solid 2009 after his breakout '08 season, but the Cubs will need all they can get out of him with Tom Gorzelanny and Carlos Silva to follow. Carlos Marmol now has been handed the reigns of the closer role and should step up to help stabilize a bullpen that could be shaky after Angel Guzman's recent surgery.

The Cubs' offense, a strength in '08, sputtered in 2009, finishing 10th in the NL in runs and 12th in BA. Marlon Byrd/Xavier Nady should be an upgrade over Bradley's bat (heck, I might be), but it will be Geovany Soto and Alfonso Soriano who will most be called on to pick up the slack and provide punch around Derrek Lee in the middle. This is especially important given questions about Aramis Ramirez getting back to full strength. With as poorly as Soto and Soriano played last season Chicago should get better production from both. The potential to do damage is still present in this lineup and if they turn enough around the 2010 lineup could put the Cubs in a dead heat with the Cardinals.

3. Milwaukee Brewers

Prince Fielder and Ryan Braun might be just as fearsome as the Cardinals tandem of Pujols and Holliday, but after that the Brewers just don't have the weapons to chase St. Louis. Milwaukee boasted a good offense in 2009 (2nd in runs behind the Phillies) but is counting on bounce-back years from Corey Hart and Ricky Weeks to continue that threat. Carlos Gomez helps make up for Mike Cameron's glove in Center but barely hits my weight at the plate...and while there are high hopes for rookie Alcides Escobar at short he won't likely hit much over a whole year.

Outside of young star in waiting Yovani Gallardo, the Brewers have cloned four of the same pitcher to round out the rotation, with soft tossing inning-eaters Randy Wolf, Jeff Suppan, Dave Bush, and Doug Davis. This is quite the durable bunch...they may not overpower you, but will keep Milwaukee in enough games to hover around or above .500 again this year, which could be Trevor Hoffman's last.

4. Cincinnati Reds

The question for the Reds of 2010 is, "How close will they look to the Reds of 2012?" With loads of young talent, especially on the mound, Cincinnati could be tough in a couple years. That starting five could feature Johnny Cueto, Edinson Volquez, Aroldis Chapman, and Homer Bailey. This starting five might contain a number of those same names, but they have a long way to go to be the dominant rotation the Reds (and many) believe they can be. We should see flashes of that dominance this year, perhaps often enough to move past the Brewers into 3rd place in the division, but they are a couple years off from being contenders.

On the offensive side this year should look much better for Jay Bruce after a difficult first full season in the bigs. He and fellow future star Joey Votto are poised to anchor a young core that is complemented by a veteran left side of the infield after the Reds picked up Scott Rolen and Orlando Cabrera. They may not be part of the future, but should help solidify both the lineup and the infield defense.

5. Houston Astros

With the news of Roy Oswalt likely starting on the DL and Lance Berkman possibly joining him, I almost dropped the Astros into the cellar. Without those two for a good chunk of the season that's exactly where Houston will be. If they can return to health in the first month of the season the Astros should have enough to best an improving Pirate team. The lineup still has a few bangers with Carlos Lee and Hunter Pence, but won't score many runs without Berkman. Heck, they didn't score very many even with Berkman most of the year last year.

Oswalt and Wandy Rodriguez should form a pretty good front of the rotation, but they will need a lot of help. Bret Myers? Bud Norris? Brian Moehler? That's not the help they need. Actually, the more I look at this team I have a hard time picking them to win more than 65 games...but I just can't pick the Pirates not to finish in the basement. They have to prove it to me first...it's just been too long.

6. Pittsburgh Pirates

Ok, the Pirates should be better. They really should. We know Pittsburgh has some exciting young guys like Andrew McCutchen, Garrett Jones, and Ryan Doumit. Even a couple starters like Ohlendorf and Morton look like they could be good, but this is a young, still maturing team. How young? The starting lineup includes just one player with over 350 games played in the majors (Ronny Cedeno - 434, not exactly an oldtimer), with most having much less than that. Even the rotation has but two guys with more than one full season of MLB experience (Maholm, Duke). In short, things are looking up in Pittsburgh, but you're always looking up from the cellar. Here's to hoping this is their year out of last place!