2010 Preview - NL Central

Least Changes in any division?

There weren't many significant moves made this offseason in the NL Central, the most notable probably being the Reds' signing of Aroldis Chapman, which has a lot more implications for future seasons than this one. The Cardinals basically swapped out Joel Piniero for Brad Penny, the Cubs played the addition by subtraction game shipping Milton Bradley as far away as they could (maybe even literally), and the Brewers signed Jimmy Edmonds...which would be dramatic had that been 6 years ago. With so few changes, does that mean the standings will remain the same, too? Yes. Yes it does.

1. St. Louis Cardinals

All the major pieces are still in place for last year's Division Champs and it is hard to argue against two Cy Young candidates, the reigning 'best hitter you've ever seen', and a full season of Matt Holliday. The depth of the rotation will ride on Brad Penny replacing Piniero's stellar year and Kyle Lohse returning to form, but the potential is high a solid 1-5. Jaime Garcia pitched his way into the rotation this spring and thankfully doesn't have big shoes (although big shoulders) to fill following Todd Wellemeyer's rough 2009 season. There are some concerns about Ryan Franklin as closer after he faded down the stretch last season, but the bullpen is solid on both sides of the mound.

Despite the rash of spring injuries in the starting lineup, the thought of having a one-two punch of Pujols-Holliday all season surely brings a smile to the face of any St. Louis fan. The Cards should also see added production from Sophomore Colby Rasmus, whom Keith Law highlights as one of his potential breakout stars for the year. The way Ryan Ludwick and David Freese have been swinging the bat this preseason there is reason to believe this could be a much improved lineup. The only real concern will be the bench, where the Redbirds will rely heavily on super-utility Felipe Lopez to fill the gaps.

This is a team we should see not just competing for another Division title, but making a deep run into October. The only other strong challenger in the Central is the...

2. Chicago Cubs

The Cubs may have been the most disappointing team of 2009, being the preseason favorite to win the Central for the third year in a row following a 97 win 2008 season. Most of Chicago would like to pin the flop squarely on the shoulders of boardgame magnate Milton Bradley, but there were issues in the bullpen, lack of production in the entire outfield and behind the plate, a poor showing by supposed ace Carlos Zambrano, and a handful of significant injuries that all contributed to a mediocre year. With as much went wrong last season it would be hard to imagine that happening again for the Cubs in 2010...except this is the Cubs...it's what they do, right?

The 2010 team has some big question marks in the rotation, especially with the most consistent starter, Ted Lilly, out for the beginning of April, possibly longer. Chicago will need Zambrano to finally reign in his emotions and focus for an entire season if they are to match up with the front of the Cardinals rotation. Ryan Dempster turned in a solid 2009 after his breakout '08 season, but the Cubs will need all they can get out of him with Tom Gorzelanny and Carlos Silva to follow. Carlos Marmol now has been handed the reigns of the closer role and should step up to help stabilize a bullpen that could be shaky after Angel Guzman's recent surgery.

The Cubs' offense, a strength in '08, sputtered in 2009, finishing 10th in the NL in runs and 12th in BA. Marlon Byrd/Xavier Nady should be an upgrade over Bradley's bat (heck, I might be), but it will be Geovany Soto and Alfonso Soriano who will most be called on to pick up the slack and provide punch around Derrek Lee in the middle. This is especially important given questions about Aramis Ramirez getting back to full strength. With as poorly as Soto and Soriano played last season Chicago should get better production from both. The potential to do damage is still present in this lineup and if they turn enough around the 2010 lineup could put the Cubs in a dead heat with the Cardinals.

3. Milwaukee Brewers

Prince Fielder and Ryan Braun might be just as fearsome as the Cardinals tandem of Pujols and Holliday, but after that the Brewers just don't have the weapons to chase St. Louis. Milwaukee boasted a good offense in 2009 (2nd in runs behind the Phillies) but is counting on bounce-back years from Corey Hart and Ricky Weeks to continue that threat. Carlos Gomez helps make up for Mike Cameron's glove in Center but barely hits my weight at the plate...and while there are high hopes for rookie Alcides Escobar at short he won't likely hit much over a whole year.

Outside of young star in waiting Yovani Gallardo, the Brewers have cloned four of the same pitcher to round out the rotation, with soft tossing inning-eaters Randy Wolf, Jeff Suppan, Dave Bush, and Doug Davis. This is quite the durable bunch...they may not overpower you, but will keep Milwaukee in enough games to hover around or above .500 again this year, which could be Trevor Hoffman's last.

4. Cincinnati Reds

The question for the Reds of 2010 is, "How close will they look to the Reds of 2012?" With loads of young talent, especially on the mound, Cincinnati could be tough in a couple years. That starting five could feature Johnny Cueto, Edinson Volquez, Aroldis Chapman, and Homer Bailey. This starting five might contain a number of those same names, but they have a long way to go to be the dominant rotation the Reds (and many) believe they can be. We should see flashes of that dominance this year, perhaps often enough to move past the Brewers into 3rd place in the division, but they are a couple years off from being contenders.

On the offensive side this year should look much better for Jay Bruce after a difficult first full season in the bigs. He and fellow future star Joey Votto are poised to anchor a young core that is complemented by a veteran left side of the infield after the Reds picked up Scott Rolen and Orlando Cabrera. They may not be part of the future, but should help solidify both the lineup and the infield defense.

5. Houston Astros

With the news of Roy Oswalt likely starting on the DL and Lance Berkman possibly joining him, I almost dropped the Astros into the cellar. Without those two for a good chunk of the season that's exactly where Houston will be. If they can return to health in the first month of the season the Astros should have enough to best an improving Pirate team. The lineup still has a few bangers with Carlos Lee and Hunter Pence, but won't score many runs without Berkman. Heck, they didn't score very many even with Berkman most of the year last year.

Oswalt and Wandy Rodriguez should form a pretty good front of the rotation, but they will need a lot of help. Bret Myers? Bud Norris? Brian Moehler? That's not the help they need. Actually, the more I look at this team I have a hard time picking them to win more than 65 games...but I just can't pick the Pirates not to finish in the basement. They have to prove it to me first...it's just been too long.

6. Pittsburgh Pirates

Ok, the Pirates should be better. They really should. We know Pittsburgh has some exciting young guys like Andrew McCutchen, Garrett Jones, and Ryan Doumit. Even a couple starters like Ohlendorf and Morton look like they could be good, but this is a young, still maturing team. How young? The starting lineup includes just one player with over 350 games played in the majors (Ronny Cedeno - 434, not exactly an oldtimer), with most having much less than that. Even the rotation has but two guys with more than one full season of MLB experience (Maholm, Duke). In short, things are looking up in Pittsburgh, but you're always looking up from the cellar. Here's to hoping this is their year out of last place!